Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Maroon Kool-Aid Ring Dunk

Congrats to all those Aggies who got their Aggie Ring this past Friday! In honor of you (and your ensuing ring dunks) I've just done my own Ring Dunk of Maroon Kool-Aid (approximately 15 seconds) and will now tackle the big question:

Say we win out, then what?

Hear me out. For the remainder of this post, we are assuming we win the rest of our regular season games (i.e. Kool-Aid Ring Dunk). That assumption is daunting enough as it is, so to help you I've constructed the remaining likely scenarios in a choose-your-own adventure style below. Begin with Option I.

Options

I. LSU plays at Georgia this weekend. If you think LSU wins, go to option II; if you think Georgia wins, go to Option III.

II. Alabama beat A&M on September 14th. If LSU beats Alabama on Nov. 9th and then loses to A&M on Nov. 23rd, then a three-way tie would ensue. The tie-breaker is complicated so the key here is: does LSU (who would now have wins over #20 TCU, #9 Georgia, #20 Florida, #21 Ole Miss, and #1 Alabama, and a loss to #10 A&M) remain ranked above Alabama (who would now have wins over #10 A&M and #21 Ole Miss, and a loss to #6 LSU)?  If you think Alabama beats LSU or loses but later jumps LSU in the rankings, go to Option IV. If you think LSU beats Alabama and stays ranked higher, go to Scenario C.

III. With LSU losing to Georgia, Alabama will win the SEC West over A&M and go to the SEC CG to likely play one-loss Georgia (Clemson). If you think Alabama wins this game, go to Scenario A. If you think Georgia wins, go to Scenario B.

IV. If Alabama ends the regular season above LSU in the rankings, then they win the SEC West over A&M and LSU. This would send them to the SEC CG where they likely play a two-loss Georgia (Clemson and LSU). If you think Alabama wins this game, go to Scenario A. If you think Georgia wins, go to Scenario D.

Scenarios

A. If Alabama wins the SEC CG, then they will play in the NCG against the first remaining team on this list:
           1) Undefeated PAC 12 Champ (see Outcome 2)
           2) Undefeated ACC Champ (see Outcome 2)
           3) Undefeated Ohio State (see Outcome 2)
           4) One-loss Texas A&M (see Outcome 3)

B. If Georgia wins the SEC with one loss, then they will play in the NCG against the first remaining team on this list:
           1) Undefeated PAC 12 Champ (see Outcome 2)
           2) Undefeated ACC Champ (see Outcome 2)
           3) Undefeated Ohio State (see Outcome 2)
           4) One-loss Texas A&M (see Outcome 3)

C. If A&M, LSU, and Alabama have a three-way tie and Alabama is ranked below LSU, then A&M wins the tie-breaker and goes to the SEC CG where we would most likely play a one-loss Georgia or a two-loss South Carolina. A win sends us to Outcome 3 and a loss practically guarantees us Outcome 1.

D. If a two-loss Georgia wins the SEC CG against Alabama, then see Outcome 3.

Outcomes

1. Cotton Bowl - No one from the Big 12 is going to the National Championship Game (NCG) so we would end up playing whoever got second place in the Big 12. This is the worst-case scenario in my mind, but I still think we destroy whoever we get out of the Big 12 in this match-up of the 4th-best SEC team vs. the 2nd-best Big 12 team.

2. BCS Sugar Bowl - It's a given that the winner of the SEC will be going to the NCG, so the second hottest team will likely be selected as an at-large pick by the Sugar Bowl to play another at-large pick. One-loss Clemson, one-loss Oregon, or one-loss Louisville are likely the most intriguing match-ups with Texas A&M if we happen to go to the Sugar Bowl.

3. National Championship Game - In the event we make it here, likely match-ups are PAC 12 winner (Oregon or Stanford), ACC winner (Clemson or Florida State), Ohio State, or possibly Alabama. If we make it to this game, then that means the defense is fixed, Johnny has won a second Heisman, and no one in America wants to play us. Johnny plays biggest on the biggest stages and there's none bigger than the NCG so, no matter who we play, we hang 60 on them and win our first National Championship in 75 years.

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